Marlins vs. Tigers MLB pick, odds, predictions for 5/15: Value on Detroit run line

Marlins vs. Tigers Odds

Wednesday, May 15, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB Network

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Miami Marlins

Miami hands the ball to left-hander Trevor Rogers on Wednesday, and he should be a good fade candidate. Through eight starts this season, Rogers is 0-6 with an unsightly 6.57 ERA and 1.86 WHIP.

The Marlins lost all eight of those games started by Rogers, with all eight defeats coming by at least a two-run margin. Based on Rogers' underlying metrics, positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 15th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Even if the left-hander gets shelled and chased early, the Marlins bullpen is unlikely to do much better. Entering this matchup, Miami's relief pitching ranks in the bottom nine of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

This pitching staff is also unlikely to get much run support, considering that the Marlins rank in the bottom 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

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Detroit Tigers

Miami's lineup is likely to continue to struggle on Wednesday as it is slated to go against Detroit right-hander Casey Mize. Through seven starts this season, Mize possesses a 3.58 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.

Detroit won five of those seven games, with four of those wins coming by at least a two-run differential. Going back to this game, Mize also ranks higher than Rogers in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Not only do the Tigers possess the stronger starting pitching, but the bullpen also outranks Miami's in ERA, FIP and xFIP. The advantages do not stop there, considering that Detroit paces Miami in runs scored per game, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Marlins vs. Tigers

Betting Pick & Prediction

There is not one advantage the Marlins possess in this game. Detroit possesses the superior starting pitcher, bullpen and lineup, while it is also the stronger team defensively.

Add in home-field advantage, and I don't see a single reason to like Miami in this matchup. Considering that Miami has also lost all eight of Rogers' starts this season by a two-run (or more) margin, I think there is more value in taking the Tigers' run line of -1.5 at +140 rather than laying -162 on the moneyline.

That +140 price is a particularly generous line considering that it is 10 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing on Tuesday afternoon.

Pick: Tigers -1.5 (+140 at FanDuel | Play to +135)